In 2015 astronomers successfully predicted the appearance of a supernova within a couple weeks. How did they do it?

Predicted properties of multiple images of the strongly lensed supernova SN Refsdal Masamune Oguri. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society: Letters, Volume 449, Issue 1, 01 May 2015, Pages L86–L89, https://arxiv.org/abs/1411.6443

Multiple Images of a Highly Magnified Supernova Formed by an Early-Type Cluster Galaxy Lens Patrick L. Kelly et al. https://arxiv.org/abs/1411.6009

"Refsdal" meets Popper: comparing predictions of the re-appearance of the multiply imaged supernova behind MACSJ1149.5+2223. T. Treu et al. https://arxiv.org/abs/1510.05750​

Irwin I. Shapiro (1964). "Fourth Test of General Relativity". Physical Review Letters. 13 (26): 789–791. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.13.789

Irwin I. Shapiro; Gordon H. Pettengill; Michael E. Ash; Melvin L. Stone; et al. (1968). "Fourth Test of General Relativity: Preliminary Results". Physical Review Letters. 20 (22): 1265–1269. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.20.1265